Southwest trio ready for war

Basketball Betting Lines

03/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Rockets, thanks to general manager Daryl Morey, should be rewarded with a playoff spot for just getting rid of Tracy McGrady's expiring and ungodly contract.

Unfortunately they're no such accommodations at this level with other teams posting up for a playoff berth in the competitive West. Not only is Houston a few games off the pace, but New Orleans and Memphis are still hooked up to a defibrillator in the conference standings. If the season ended today, the Rockets and Hornets would miss the playoffs by four games, while the Grizzlies would be 4 1/2 games behind No. 8 seed Portland.

The ding-dong battle between the three Southwest inhabitants will most likely be won by Houston because the Hornets need injured All-Star Chris Paul back and Memphis is still too young to take the next step. Yes, it was tough to part ways with Carl Landry, but Morey and the Rockets are deserving of a postseason spot for landing former Sacramento leading scorer Kevin Martin. Morey got his wing scorer to replace the oft-injured McGrady and the newcomer hasn't disappointed, averaging 23.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.3 assists in six games (four starts) with his new employer.

Martin, Aaron Brooks and Luis Scola give the Rockets a solid trio of scorers for the stretch run, while reserve Trevor Ariza is averaging 15.4 points off the bench for Houston, which hasn't helped itself with seven losses over the past 10 games.

Memphis has made the playoffs just three times in its history, getting swept in four games in each series. It would be a boost for the NBA to see the young Grizz play past their 82-game schedule, but Lionel Hollins' club is still a few steps away from making a playoff splash. Hollins has watched his squad alternate wins and losses over the past nine games, which is more proof that the inconsistency will be an albatross.

The rest of March's schedule has a handful of layups in New Jersey, New York, Golden State and Sacramento, with the likes of Western powers New Orleans, San Antonio, Boston, Houston and Dallas on the docket as well. The storybook ending would have Zach Randolph leading the Grizzlies into the playoffs in his first year with the club. However, if George Orwell was behind the pen, readers would be introduced to his idea of social injustice. In many ways it's a crying shame that a young, talented roster such in Memphis can't seem to get over the hump in the talent-laden conference.

New Orleans would probably jump at the chance of trading March schedules with Memphis because it's one any head coach would defer playing. Future matchups with the Spurs, Grizzlies, Thunder, Nuggets, Suns, Jazz, Mavericks, Cavaliers and Lakers will knock the Hornets out of contention, while the cries of woe for Paul will not be heard for at least another couple of weeks. Rookie Darren Collison can't do it all despite averaging 18.6 points, 8.3 assists and 3.8 rebounds in 23 games as a starter. Mix in David West's 18.3 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, and New Orleans is still on the outside looking in.

In other news out West, many speculate which team has the audacity to push the Lakers in a seven-game playoff series. Is it Dallas, Denver, Utah or Phoenix? Who knows? Could upstart Oklahoma City make a run at the defending champs with the way Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have put the Thunder on the map?

Maybe.

Durant's thunderous scoring streak has Oklahoma City in the sixth spot, while Dallas eight-game winning streak has helped them to the second seed in the West, just six games behind LA and a half-game in front of Denver. MVP candidate Dirk Nowitzki has been a major factor in that run, averaging 32.8 points in his last four games with three 30-point games and one double-double. Since acquiring Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from Washington before the trade deadline last month, veteran point guard Jason Kidd has most likely felt like a 'kid' in a candy store. Just imagine what Oscar Robertson's already- amazing numbers would have looked like if he had the chance to sling the rock to Nowitzki, Butler, Shawn Marion or Jason Terry.

Kidd has it made is what other guards in the league may believe.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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